The Ebb and Tide of Subscribers

Sure, there's an understandable increase after being linked to by a popular blog or web article, and there's a noticeable drop-off if the feed in question produces no new content within a reasonable amount of time. But there are days we've posted quite a few updates all at once and seen our numbers slip, or gone silent for days and watched them climb.
Is there a reliable metric to explain all of this, or is it to be chalked up to the whims of a zero attention-span audience? And, if that's the case... does the quality or frequency of content matter in the short run?
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