VSocial and the Culling of Web TV

Just got off the phone with Chris Johnson of VSocial, one of many web video sites looking to carve out a sizeable niche of the new media marketplace. Chris and I go back a ways -- we were college roommates ten years ago at The Art Institute of Pittsburgh -- and we've each been involved with multimedia since the turn of the century (which will sound a lot more impressive 50 years from now).

One thing I value about Chris: by and large, he says what's on his mind. When the topic of the conversation turned to how VSocial is differentiating themselves from other web video platforms, he admitted the differences in ALL web video platforms right now is pretty negligible. VSocial, Blip, Veoh, Vimeo... everyone is fighting for the same foothold in a medium that the general public is only beginning to be even moderately aware of, which makes differentation almost an afterthought. Why fight to distance yourself from competitors when the medium itself hasn't even been mainstreamed yet?

On the other hand, how many of these web TV platforms (and there are dozens more I haven't mentioned) will still be around in 3-5 years? I, along with everyone else watching the space, predicts a massive falling into one another among the existing and emerging companies, in which industry leaders swallow their competitors (or render them obsolete), leaving room for a maximum of 3-5 platforms on the playing field, not counting those who are sold in whole to existing multimedia conglomerates.

Who will survive?

My guess: the companies that provide the biggest value to content producers OR the companies that provide the biggest value to users. Ideally, they'd be one and the same, but ultimately some companies "get" customer service, and some companies "get" supplier service. Those who don't get it at any level will be hard-pressed to keep anyone happy, and the 10% difference that separates them from a competitor won't matter much when that competitor comes knocking at their door, brandishing hundreds of happy content producers or millions of happy customers -- and a check.